Professor Doubles-Down On His 2020 Prediction, Says Trump Has ’91 Percent’ Chance Of Winning

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Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is predicting that Joe Biden will lose this November, claiming that Trump has a “91 percent” chance of winning in November, according to Fox News.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

As Mediaite concluded, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which reportedly predicted 5 out of 6 of the past elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

His model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, instead of the polls.

Norpoth claims that Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

More from Fox News:

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

Norpoth’s model, which correctly predicted Trump’s victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama’s 2008 election, where he earned 365 electoral votes.

The Stony Brook professor appeared on “The Ingraham Angle” back in May making the same prediction.

While the “Primary Model” hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.

The president’s polling has taken quite the hit in recent months amid the coronavirus outbreak and increased racial tensions following the death of George Floyd.